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18 Dec 2015
CPI to suggest BoC inaction but it won’t help CAD – BNPP
FXStreet (Delhi) – Economists at BNP Paribas, expect broadly firmer November inflation numbers from Canada on Friday.
Key Quotes
“Base effects are expected to drive headline CPI up to 1.4% y/y, while core inflation should accelerate to 2.3% y/y. That would put core inflation well above the BoC target midpoint and with CAD falling by some 4.5% versus the USD over the past month, the BoC can probably afford to remain on hold in the face of falling oil prices. Although USDCAD fully incorporates the decline in oil prices at these levels in our view, we still see upside next year as US-Canada rate differentials widen amid Fed policy tightening.”
Key Quotes
“Base effects are expected to drive headline CPI up to 1.4% y/y, while core inflation should accelerate to 2.3% y/y. That would put core inflation well above the BoC target midpoint and with CAD falling by some 4.5% versus the USD over the past month, the BoC can probably afford to remain on hold in the face of falling oil prices. Although USDCAD fully incorporates the decline in oil prices at these levels in our view, we still see upside next year as US-Canada rate differentials widen amid Fed policy tightening.”