South Africa: SARB to decide if the USD/ZAR moves 0.5% lower or higher – TDS

Economists at TD Securities and the Bloomberg consensus expect the SARB to cut the repo rate by 50bps on 21 May. USD/ZAR is trading at 18.4882.

Key quotes

“We expect the MPC to cut the repo rate by 50bps to 3.75% at the next meeting on Thursday, 21 May. While consensus is also looking for a 50bps cut, the FRA curve is pricing in a deeper -75bps cut.”

“If the SARB cuts 50bps, USD/ZAR is likely to move 0.5% lower. If the SARB cuts over 75bps, we expect ZAR to weaken with USD/ZAR moving around 0.5% higher.”